Perspectives on Technology Impact Assessment (TIA): From Geopolitics to Quantum Sensing

Join in a research-based webinar on this subject led by two analysts recognised internationally for their work: Pranay Kotastanhe (Takshashila Institution) and Greg Austin (Social Cyber Institute and University of Technology Sydney). The discussion is part of the new project on Australia India Joint Technology Impact Assessment (TIA) for Peace and Stability funded by the Australia India Cyber and Critical Technologies Partnership. You can read the Project Scope briefing note here and see the video of our project launch at this link.

The webinar will run for one hour from 3pm Sydney time/9.30am Delhi time on Friday 21 February. If you would like to participate in this discussion, please sign up by registering at this link . We will send you the details for participation.

This is the second virtual webinar in the series. It will be held two weeks after the event  ‘From Benefits to Bans: The Role and Influence of Technology Impact Assessment’, on 7 February for which you may have already registered.

In this second webinar, Pranay's talk will focus on how narratives around high technology and national power have become more assertive. He will explore how this development impacts a nation-state's assessment of technology and how it needs to be governed. The talk will touch upon some themes from his working paper, ‘High Technology Geopolitics in the Post-Pandemic World’ (2023), contextualising them with more recent developments around export controls for AI chips. Key judgments form the paper are notable:

• trade wars are likely to be tech wars at their core

• aggressive national competition over high-technology might produce some non-linear breakthroughs this decade

• there will be higher alignment between private high-technology players and their national governments

• we will likely encounter selective international cooperation on high-technology subject to geopolitical considerations.

Greg will discuss the case of quantum sensing. He will emphasise the value of comprehensive and granular approaches to TIA. He will mention the curious case of military applications of quantum radar. His remarks will be based in part on his paper published by IISS in 2024 on "Quantum Sensing: Comparing the United States and China". Key judgements include:

• in the coming decade, Washington will likely be significantly better placed than Beijing to achieve and deploy breakthroughs in quantum sensing technology for national-security purposes

• this assessment does not exclude the possibility that China may make militarily significant breakthroughs with little warning in one or two subfields of quantum sensing

• ·an analysis based on subcategories of this field is therefore essential

• a full appreciation of the strategic balance of technological power in a field like quantum sensing should consider the clear advantages accruing to the US from the robust contributions made by several key allies and/or partners, which, depending on the subfield, include the likes of Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.

  
  

Here below is a teaser file, prepared by Greg Austin just this week showing several reference points among the many hundreds that need to be considered in such a comparison. This file looks at patent data for quantum imaging (a sub-field of quantum sensing). It also includes data for one sub-field of quantum imaging.

We look forward to hearing from you.

Pranay Kotasthane chairs the Takshashila Institution’s High-Tech Geopolitics Programme, and teaches public policy, international relations and public finance. He is a co-author of popular books on public policy like 'Missing in Action', 'When the Chips are Down' and 'We, the Citizens'. He is also a consultant with InKlude Labs. He chairs the Takshashila Institution’s High-Tech Geopolitics Programme, and teaches public policy, international relations and public finance. He is a co-author of popular books on public policy like 'Missing in Action', 'When the Chips are Down' and 'We, the Citizens'. He is also a consultant with InKlude Labs.

Professor Greg Austin is a Director of the Social Cyber Institute. He has held appointments in the International Relations Department at ANU, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Department of War Studies Kings College London, and the University of New South Wales in Canberra. He is also currently an adjunct Professor at the University of Technology Sydney. Austin has worked on technology assessment for military and strategic purposes from social science perspectives, including private consultancies for the UK and Japanese governments. His perspectives on technology assessment have been outlined in his short report authored for IISS, ‘Quantum Sensing: Comparing the United States and China’ (2024). Austin was co-editor and contributing author for the IISS two-part series on ‘Cyber Capabilities and National Power’ (2021 and 2023). He has published two books on China’s cyber power and co-authored several articles and reports on Russian cyber power.