Quantum Sensing: Comparing the United States and China

This 2024 report compares the research and development capabilities of the United States and China in quantum sensing. It concludes that in the coming decade, Washington will likely be significantly better placed than Beijing to achieve and deploy breakthroughs in this technology for national-security purposes. However, this assessment does not rule out the possibility that China could achieve militarily significant breakthroughs with little warning in one or two subfields of quantum sensing. An analysis based on subcategories of this field is therefore essential. A full appreciation of the strategic balance of technological power in a field like quantum sensing should also consider the clear advantages accruing to the US from the robust contributions made by several key allies and/or partners, which, depending on the subfield, include the likes of Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.

The paper advocates a comprehensive approach to national-technology assessment. It relies on the following six indicators: governance; innovation systems; education systems; research directions; industry comparison; and patents. The assessment draws on important materials from specialists and officials in China as well as US agencies and specialists.